what age do soccer players peak

Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, 4: (1), 139. Overtraining can lead to a decline in performance, so players need to listen to their bodies and take a break when they feel they need it. Entry and exit from professional sports is non-random. Contemporary issues in the physical preparation of elite players. It is thus measured on a continuous scale. Simply watching highlights will not allow you to make a fair judgment on a players all-around game in a match. However, at the heart of the discussion here is the question of peak or optimal age: Given a measure of performance, when do professional soccer players in the mens game typically achieve peak or maximum performance? Conventional wisdom has it that the average player peaks in his mid to late 20s. This is largely based on anecdotal evidence and views of professionals in the game. A cubic function fits the average rating age relationship best with a highly significant cubic term and R2 of 0.82. Select this link to jump to content. What age do professional cyclists generally peak at? However, considering that soccer is a sport that requires one to develop through different stages, it's, generally, too late to become a professional player when you're past 23 years old. Also, statistical evidence, over 5 years, has shown that the most common age for goalkeeping appearances in the English Premier League is 28. Does this suggest that the perfect age to be a footballer is 27.5? Using a similar approach, Gleave (2015) labels players into three age categories: Talents (younger than 24), peak age (2429) and veterans (older than 29). But soccer is not a sport that tends to follow logic. For defenders, the relevant terms are significant in both specifications. For each group, we predict the player-specific BLUPs of the random effects, combine them with the estimated fixed components, and construct individualized age-performance trajectories. 2b, the peak for midfielders happens earlier at 26 but they again share the same peak range as forwards. Free service line: 400 661 8717 (2009) . Their results showed that an inverted-U curve characterizes the relationship between market valuation and age, with peak value occurring at age 26 (Anderson and Sally, 2012). With regards to the physical aspect, I remember as a 17-year-old playing in the first team at National League level, struggling to last a full game due to muscle cramps. As illustrated above, clubs perception of when players peak can affect various personnel decisions, from the kind of contract they offer a player to the fee they are willing to pay (or accept) for a transfer. Sprinters, get sprinting - your early to mid 20s will likely see your explosive performance peak. The premise is simple: If most players, including those with marginal ability, play professionally when they are at their highest performance level, then the modal age the age at which most players participate also happens to be the peak age. *** shows significance at 1%; ** shows significance at 5%; * shows significance at 10%. At what age do soccer players peak? Journal of Gerontology, 43: (5), 113120. b. Rees J. Tim Weah set for Juventus transfer with medical scheduled this week, Efecto LamborJimmy? This optimal age range of the mid to late 20s, he notes, matches up well with the range in other sports as well, such as professional basketball, baseball and even tennis. Arguably the most straightforward method of determining age of peak performance is to plot the players age distribution and find the modal age. Age of peak competitive performance of elite athletes: A systematic review. One way players can thus buck their aging trends is by moving positions, just as Javier Mascherano extended his career by moving from central midfield to center-back; likewise, Cristiano Ronaldo subtly moved to a "true" striker role after years as a hybrid winger. The problem is that when a player loses the ability to play at the highest level, he ceases to get any minutes at the highest level. . I find that peak age is roughly 24-28, with 25-26 being the most likely prime for an attacking player. , The carrot is more alluring than ever, and the means to chase it now come in the form of five-star amenities. Corresponding author: Seife Dendir, Department of Economics, College of Business and Economics, Radford University, Radford, VA 24142, USA. Germany's Hitzlsperger reflects on decision to come out as gay, inclusion in football, more, Women's transfer grades: Chelsea an A for Macario. "Most of the research would indicate that your mid to late 20s and possibly early 30s is when you're going to be at your physical peak in terms of endurance and muscle strength," Professor David Bishop, from Victoria . Bridging different eras in sports. I told him, publicly and privately, that he needed to step back a yard or two to give himself a chance against strikers. At striker or center-back, a player who adds skill and guile may hang on for much long as his athleticism declines. , Moreover, the other important finding of the paper that forwards peak probably earlier than midfielders and certainly earlier than defenders is also largely explainable by the physical demands of playing each position. Schulz R. Section 6 contextualizes the results in the broader literature on age and performance in sports and the final section concludes. This paper aims to shed light on the optimal or peak age in professional soccer. Positions that require the most athleticism are a young person's game, whereas older players will more often be found at positions that most prize guile. For instance, peak performance in baseball is generally thought to be achieved between the ages of 27 and 30, although peak age varies widely between specific tasks of the game (Schulz et al., 1994; Fair, 2008; and Bradbury, 2009, among others). Indeed adolescence ranges from age 15 to 23 in a person's biological growth. The panel data for each group was unbalanced because not all players had entries for each of the five seasons. (2013) . In explosive events, such as sprints and 50100m swimming, the peak age ranges from 20 to 27 years, but it invariably decreases with event duration (i.e. While ratings are updated live during a match, the final rating is determined after full time, taking into account match outcomes and any necessary adjustments and corrections in statistics. Read about our approach to external linking. a. Advertisement. The two plots for defenders (Figs. "For midfielders, the . 6e and 6f makes this visually apparent the peak age distribution for defenders not only exhibits a wider range, it also sits slightly to the right on the age scale relative to the one for midfielders. One is that the headlines about Roy Hodgson picking a very "young" England side for Brazil 2014 were misleading. [emailprotected], For editorial issues, permissions, book requests, submissions and proceedings, contact the Amsterdam office [emailprotected], Inspirees International (China Office) Time-motion analysis in elite soccer has shown that forwards undertake the most maximal sprints and for longer durations, ahead of midfielders and defenders (Bloomfield et al., 2007 and sources cited therein). The threshold of 270 minutes provided an acceptable balance between the competing goals of removing outlier observations and minimizing the loss of unduly large number of observations. The data are stacked in panel form (each player across years). Age and performance: Fixed effects regression fit, cubic specification Defenders. Bridging different eras in sports: Comment. Comparing Figs. Ciyunsi Beili 207(CapitaLand), Bld 1, 7-901 There was a recent study done at the University of Vigo in Pontevedra, Spain, that attempted to analyze the evolution of players age in the UEFA Champions League. Simmons R. (2007) confirm that defenders spend the least amount of time sprinting and running, whereas midfielders run the most and shuffle the least. 2023 BBC. Tel. *** - shows significance at 1%. : +1 540 831 5437; Fax: +1 540 831 6209; E-mail: [emailprotected]. The results imply that the average forward peaks at 26. Siegler R.S. , (2011) . c. Age and performance: Random coefficients regression fits Defenders. , and Well, maybe not. But is it broadly consistent with the peak age identified for other sports that require similar physical skills and dexterity as soccer? However, Ronaldo reinvented himself as a striker and now plays as a target man instead of making continued bursts up and down the wings. The World Cup and the role of average squad age in winning it has been fertile ground for discussion. The notion of a "peak" player age the time at which they are at the. As Colin Trainor has shown, dribbling ability likewise peaks very early and declines over the course of a career. Peak age CI Peak age 95% confidence interval. There are over 200 raw statistics included in the calculation of a players/teams rating, weighted according to their influence within the game. This would seem to fit into Malcolm Gladwells findings, in his famous book Outliers, in which Mr. Gladwell found that to reach the mastery stage of any skill, an individual needs to practice for 10,000 hours. The years catch up with you. , (2005) . , The average retirement age for a professional soccer player is 35. Age is again rounded off to the nearest integer and the ratio for a given age is calculated by dividing the total minutes of players of that age by the total minutes of all players. [*] The research article, " When do soccer players peak? Penguin, New York. Mean rating, as noted, typically suffers from selection bias. However, the number of paths for an aging midfielder is limited and Liverpool need a high degree of confidence that Lallana can make such a transition if they are to offer him big money through his age-31 season. For example, a player that is just breaking through sometimes shines and receives a high rating with minimal minutes, but it is difficult to assume he would maintain that level of performance over extended playing time over a season. Players vary in physical and other ability and only individualized assessment can inform us when a specific player is likely to perform optimally (Strudwick, 2013).13 Second, as already noted in the paper, soccer remains the prototypical team game, and the extent to which a player can express his ability, physical or otherwise, still largely depends on the players surrounding him, in addition to numerous other factors. With his change of pace hed rob a center-forward just when the striker thought he was in business. Our research could not uncover any systematic, published study that examines peak age in professional soccer. The discrepancy suggests that midfield players are perhaps a more heterogenous group and the assumption that they share the same basic age-performance trajectory is probably too strong.11. Searching for just a few words should be enough to get started. Players are then classified into three groups based on their field position: Forwards, Midfielders and Defenders. Wayne Rooney could be past his peak already, Paul Scholes believes, Times, 22 May. For example, Forwards will typically peak around the age of 25, Midfielder around 25 to 29 yrs old, Defenders will peak a bit later according to their abilities . Very good players start earlier and quit later than average or weak players. As can be seen from Fig. (Ranked from the most to the least "age-sensitive" positions: Wide attacking midfielder, central attacking midfielder, full-back, central midfielder, striker, center-back, goalkeeper.). Before we present and estimate a formal statistical model of the age-performance relationship, we begin with two relatively simple methods of identifying peak age: Age distribution and bivariate analyses. However, this does not mean that all players' peak or optimal age is the same as many factors can affect when a player reaches their peak performance, such as position, training, nutrition, injuries, and genetics. Known in his native country as King Kazu, he started his professional career in 1986. Analysis shows that players decline in tackle rate and tackle success rate over their careers. The sum of the constant term and an estimated age coefficient therefore measures predicted performance at that age. Whats unquantifiable is the psychological side of the modern game. To further examine this, we estimate a model that allows each player to have his own aging trajectory of the general form: There are different ways of estimating such a model (see Brander et al., 2014). We also dropped entries when a player is younger than 18 (after rounding off) or older than 38. Would these players have become top-class players if they did not receive the same training and in the same environment. : +1 540 831 5437; Fax: +1 540 831 6209; E-mail: Copyright 2023 IOS Press All rights reserved. At the very highest echelon of soccer, women players tend to be younger than . Two dead as man opens fire at Moldova airport, Rescuers amputate leg of woman stuck in travelator, Sex life of rare 'leopard-print' frog revealed. For example, a quadratic polynomial implies a single peak and symmetry around that peak. Player contract is especially important in soccer because, unlike in other sports (e.g. So let me answer the question of when do soccer players peak? There is no set age at which all players must retire, and it is ultimately up to the individual player to decide when they are no longer able to compete at a high level. As noted by many observers, soccer is the quintessential team game that lacks clear and quantifiable dimensions of individual performance, which are typically present in other sports such as baseball, tennis or even basketball (Anderson and Sally, 2013; Simmons, 2007). Based on the fixed effects estimates, Figs. The ranking shows the top 25 players, by position, who had at least 3 data points in the estimation sample. Force generated by the neuromuscular system, speed and acceleration routinely combine to produce the maximum power that is needed to undertake the numerous bursts of explosive activity. It's the mean age of the 32 teams that played in the first group matches. The median age is also very close - if you list all 32 teams in order of age from the youngest (Nigeria, 24.4) to the oldest (USA, 29.5), the two teams in the middle of the table (England and Australia) both have an average age of 27.4. , (2007) . Age at peak performance of successful track & field athletes. WorkingUSA: The Journal of Labor and Society, 457471. , and As shown in Fig. Of course a month-long tournament is different from a regular league season that typically spans 10 months and, likely, so are the determinants of performance. Ive never seen a player lose it with Arsne, Guardian, 18 August. 7 The appendix presents the top 25 players in each position according to the estimated player-specific effect, i Forwards, on the other hand, perform significantly higher amount of shuffling, endure the most physical contact at high intensity, and generally undertake more high to very high intensity activity relative to players in the other two positions. Whilst at the 2014 World Cup in Brazil, the mean age for players participating in the early matches was also 27.5 years. Westport: Praeger, pp. Read about our approach to external linking. Soccer is one of those sports that you can't play effectively when you're past a certain age. Hodder and Stoughton, London. In the preferred models, the average forward peaks at 25, whereas the typical defender peaks at 27. A player's rate of progressive, attacking passes increases until 28 years old; even in a player's early 30s, his numbers remain competitive. Can Boca climb back into race to be among South America's best? As noted earlier, the final exercise in this section checks for the presence of a systematic relationship between ability and age of peak performance. So the trick is, as a coach, is to apply the correct training strategies that are required for each stage of development and to also ensure that the players training load is not too much or vice versa. For the top leagues around the world, the site obtains its raw statistics from Opta and presents them in an accessible, publicly available platform. For all three groups, the cubic specification was found to be the better fit. Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, 10: (2), 99107. Rendleman R.J. Jr. , Their analyses showed that athletic events that demand strength, speed, explosive power, quick reaction and body coordination tend to experience peak performances in the early 20s. Swimming, sprinting and tennis belong to this category. 6d-6f show the full histogram distribution for the three groups (along with the estimated kernel density). Every event of importance is taken into account, with a positive or negative effect on ratings weighted in relation to its area on the pitch and its outcome. One way of allowing the age effect to be naturally determined by the present data is through the use of age dummy variables. In header section. The football aging curve. Select this link to jump to navigation, http://www.soccerbythenumbers.com/2012/12/age-and-inverted-u-player-age-and.html, http://cartilagefreecaptain.sbnation.com/2013/12/9/5191634/the-football-aging-curve, http://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-28254123, http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/sport/football/clubs/manchesterunited/article4097035.ece, http://infostradalive.com/2015/02/15/analyse-this-the-ageing-game/, http://www.theguardian.com/football/2014/may/15/arsenal-mikel-arteta-arsene-wenger-contracts, http://www.theguardian.com/football/2010/aug/26/arsene-wenger-sebastien-squillaci-arsenal, http://www.theguardian.com/football/2014/nov/24/manchester-city-future-champions-league-qualification-samir-nasri, http://www.arsenal.com/news/features/20140325/-football-is-like-a-fast-train-, http://www.askmen.com/sports/fanatic_300/325_the-best-age-for-athletes.html, http://www.theguardian.com/football/2003/aug/19/sport.biography, http://www.economist.com/blogs/gametheory/2014/07/player-age-football, In footer section. This would imply that professional soccer players need to spend roughly 8-10 years of deep practice to arrive at their peak or maximum performance level. The breakdown comprised of 1721 observations in the sample for forwards, 2779 for midfielders and 3468 for defenders. "In the preferred models, the average forward peaks at 25, whereas the typical defender peaks at 27," Dendir wrote. [emailprotected], For editorial issues, like the status of your submitted paper or proposals, write to [emailprotected], IOS Press A regression of average performance on age yields statistically insignificant estimates whether in a cubic or quadratic polynomial. The evidence so far is predominantly anecdotal and subjective. However, in the modern game, recent research has shown that too much training can lead to a decrease in performance. I thank Eugene Shen, the editor, and three anonymous reviewers for many insightful comments that improved the paper considerably. 5b shows that the overall trajectory of performance is significant and fits the expected pattern. Accordingly, we calculate mean WS rating by age, for ages 18 to 38. The plots for forwards and midfielders are based on the quadratic specification, hence the symmetry around peak age. International Journal of Sports Sciences & Coaching, 9: (4), 651662. Put another way, the results confirm the conventional wisdom that the physical demands placed on defenders are perhaps less strenuous. Hume P.A. 2, no. Age is measured by players age as of January 15, approximately the mid-season mark for a typical league. The estimation exercise adopts a panel fixed effects model, which utilizes the longitudinal variation in age and performance to determine optimal age. Bivariate approaches to estimating peak age simply plot a measure of performance against age. If you take all of the 26-year-old strikers in the big four leagues (Premier League, Bundesliga, La Liga, Serie A) since 2010-2011, they total about 0.39 non-penalty goals per 90 minutes. An Example: An attempted dribble (event) in the oppositions final third (area of the pitch) that is successful (outcome) will have a positive effect on a players rating. (www.whoscored.com/Explanations). Emmanuel Petit played alongside an incredible list of players, including Bergkamp, Henry, Zidane, Vieira, Xavi, Rivaldo, Guardiola, Lampard, Crespo and more, and he was also not a bad player himself. Simmons R. http://www.theguardian.com/football/2014/nov/24/manchester-city-future-champions-league-qualification-samir-nasri. Second, although the weighting of outcomes underlying an algorithm inevitably involves some value judgment, the overall rating itself is objective in the sense that it is applied consistently across players and over time. - Male and female triathletes peak at 27-years-old. 3c). , (2008) . , Fax: +1 703 830 2300 I also thank Adey Kefenie for encouraging me to write about soccer. Part of the credit for this goes to clubs, who over the years have invested considerably in sports science support infrastructure from modern training facilities, to fitness and diet professionals, to performance analytics capabilities to monitor, elevate and sustain player performance (Anderson and Sally, 2013; Williams, 2013). Lallana has played well in multiple roles for but, over the next few years, his positional flexibility is likely to be limited. Knowledge of optimal age in soccer is intrinsically valuable from the perspective of performance analysis. Ferguson A. SB Nation Cartilage Free Captain, 9 December. As peak age can vary due to the physical and physiological demands of the modern game, in this blog post I will cover the following age-related topics within soccer. (ed.). (1999) noted that this is somewhat earlier than home run hitters in baseball (29 years) and considerably earlier than golfers (around 34 years; see also Tiruneh, 2010). Right now, Chelsea have the Premier League's top scoring striker in Diego Costa, as well as highly-touted prospect Michy Batshuayi in reserve. They were virtually identical. The predicted peak age from the cubic fit is 25 years. 100025, Beijing Nevertheless, this might not be the case. The conservative court flexed its muscles. After leaving Yokohama FC, Miura joined the Suzuki Point Getters on loan, who are coached by his older brother. The quality of training professional soccer players receive is crucial to their development. a. Ratings of 5.9 or less are labeled Poor to Extremely Poor depending on the specific value. Table4a presents important summary statistics on the estimated peak ages, whereas Figs. , and d. Peak age distribution from individualized age-performance fits Forwards. Williams M.A. Another way to prolong a career is by playing fewer games. This is a relatively short career, especially when compared to other professions. For midfielders, the estimated peak age varies by model but still occurs in the 25-27 age band. Similarly, Dendir (2016) uses men's soccer performance ratings to assess when players peak and discovered the average peak age to be between 25 and 27 years of age, with forward players peaking . The impact of age on baseball players performance. In fact, Fig. Due to lack of convergence during maximum likelihood estimation, the results for forwards use the sub-sample of players who have data points for 3 or more seasons (1208 observations from 289 players). Position can dictate age when players decline. From Beckham to Messi: How much has MLS grown in a decade? (2007) . By comparing season by season statistical evidence, you will be able to see if a player is progressing or if there is a substantial drop-off in performances. The trajectory also shows that midfielders seem to perform near maximum levels over a slightly longer period, from about 21 to 29 years. In general, professional soccer players peak age is between 25 and 28 years old. Notable omissions are Zlatan Ibrahimovic (EFE=1.110) and Neymar (EFE=0.869), each with ratings for two seasons only (the former had moved to the French League and the latter joined Barcelona in 2013/14). Alex Ferguson: My Autobiography. You can never predict the future so it is impossible to determine if a player will continue to progress but there are two things that together, will help give you a good idea if a player has reached or is reaching the peak of their powers. In athletic endeavors, they conclude, typically physiological capacity eventually overrides experience. With less ground to cover it seems logical that goalkeepers can play in their prime for much longer thus their predicted peak age range would increase. Journal of Sports Science and Medicine, 6: (1), 6370. a. The following chart looks at two measures of creativity, expected assists and the rate of progressive passing, defined as "passes that drive an attacking move forward into space.". , (2014) . There are several reasons why, for analysts, the age-performance profile of players may be difficult to map, possibly explaining the dearth of systematic evidence on the issue. For the top clubs in Europe, the average team age is: As we age, our bodies go through changes that can impact our physical performance. BBC.com, 10 July. Fax: +86 10 8446 7947 Are the official world golf rankings biased? One thing this age curve can help with is roster planning for the future. |t| ratios based on robust standard errors are shown in parentheses. That mean is around the sweet spot, late 20s and early 30s, when experts say . Age and performance: Player fixed effects regression, age dummy variable specification. , (2014) . Select this link to jump to navigation, In navigation section. Liverpool recently signed 28-year-old Adam Lallana to a hefty contract extension that will see him earn 110,000 ($140,000) per week. Kuper S. Age and performance: Fixed effects regression fit, quadratic specification Defenders. , For example, if you were to watch videos of a young Ronaldo, you would see a flying winger. The distribution of peak ages is analyzed for comparison with the peak age implied by the polynomial fixed effects model in the previous section. 335356. In You can use performance analysis to look at how a player is performing over an extended period, not just in one match. Other applications of fixed effects estimation in sports include Arkes (2010), who tests the hot hand theory in basketball, and Broadie and Rendleman Jr. (2013), who examine world rankings in golf. This is perhaps earlier than what conventional soccer wisdom holds. Although the analysis was not focused on determining peak age per se, it found that a one-year increase in average squad age results in a four-place drop in performance (The Economist, 2014). Note: Ordinary Least Squares regression of peak age on ability. Furthermore, we regress individual peak age on a performance proxy to check for the presence of a systematic relationship between ability and peak age. Out of the 32 national teams that qualified for the 2018 World Cup Finals, only 9 teams had an average age of 29 plus or 26 or younger. Age and performance: Fixed effects regression fit, dummy variable specification Forwards. Now I am sure that you can think of many players who have played for 15 years and some players who have even played that long at the top level, such as the Premier League. The results show that the average professional soccer player peaks between the ages of 25 and 27. That's the average age of the winning teams in the 19 World Cup finals from 1930 to 2010, from the youngest - Argentina in 1978 (25.7) - to the oldest - Brazil in 1962 (30.7). 10 For the initiated and curious, the two fitted lines at the top of Figure6a, seemingly in a universe of their own, belong to Messi and Ronaldo. Overpaid athletes: Comparing American and European football. The results in the paper are useful in terms of informing our expectations about when soccer players are likely to perform at the maximum level. Table1 presents summary statistics on WS rating and age for each group. (2015) . A third-degree polynomial of the form: Table2 presents the results of the fixed effects model with polynomials in age. Allen S.V. While the rate of expected assists falls off quickly after 28, creative players may still be productive members of their teams. Fort R. There are many, many 26-year-olds in the Premier League and very few 34-year-olds because players reach their peak performance levels around age 26. Different skills, then, have different aging curves, which can help to predict more specifically how player production will evolve over the course of a career. Dendir's findings suggest the average professional soccer player peaks between the ages of 25 and 27, depending on the position they play on the pitch. The BBCs Ben Carter notes that this is historically the perfect age to be a player in the World Cup since it also happens to be the mean age of the winning teams in the 19 prior World Cups (Carter, 2014). Such a pattern of high shot rates with lower conversion at a young age is common with forwards. In recent years match-day data on these and other variables are becoming increasingly available for analysts and the public, but the extent to which they can be aggregated and utilized to measure longer-term performance by players is yet to be seen. This article discusses at what age soccer players retire and why some soccer players decide it is time to hang up their cleats. If you test the aging curve by comparing that number to all the 34-year-old strikers, they also score 0.39 NPG per 90. Two caveats are in order, however. Soccernomics. Ducker J. 5c, the predicted performance curve is much flatter for defenders even well into their 30s, confirming the results from the polynomial regressions. Van Persie's production declined precipitously over the next two years and United were unable to replace his production until this season with Ibrahimovic.

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